Effect snapshot
Intervention Use first substitution before 60th minute vs after 75th minute
Outcome Goals scored in final 20 minutes
Effect 8–18 percent relative increase
Confidence study
Context Professional soccer match analysis, top leagues, 2018–2024

Sources

What changes

Earlier tactical substitutions are often associated with an 8–18% relative increase in late-game scoring involvement.

When this tends to work

  • Conditions similar to: Professional soccer match analysis, top leagues, 2018–2024
  • You can measure Goals scored in final 20 minutes reliably
  • The intervention is implemented consistently, not half-measured

When to be careful

  • Your audience or product differs materially from the cited context
  • Compliance costs or second-order effects outweigh the lift
  • Evidence label is study—treat wide ranges as planning bands, not promises

Practical takeaway

Use the cited range for prioritization and test design. Verify against your own data before scaling.